Global markets follow a mixed course with the uncertainty about the steps to be taken by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming period and the continued depreciation of companies in the technology sector, especially chipmaker Nvidia.
In the stock markets, technology stocks carried the downward trend to the third consecutive trading day, but it is seen that this trend does not affect other sectors.
Analysts said that the growth and personal consumption data to be announced in the US during the week may give clues about the steps to be taken by the Fed in the coming period, and that the verbal guidance of bank officials may also increase volatility in the markets.
Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said better inflation data would raise the question of whether interest rates are too high.
“If inflation continues on the trajectory we saw last month, and that’s accompanied by conditions of slowdown in some other parts of the real economy, then you have to start questioning whether we should remain so restrictive,” Goolsbee said.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also emphasized that they have made a lot of progress on inflation, but there is still work to be done.
If inflation turns out to be falling more slowly than expected, it will be appropriate to keep the policy rate higher for longer, Daly said, adding that if inflation falls rapidly or the labor market softens more than expected, it will be necessary to lower the interest rate.
In the pricing in the money markets following these developments, the probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in September is 74 percent and 90 percent in November. After a possible rate cut, the probability that the bank will cut interest rates for the second time is priced at 90 percent in December.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who made statements yesterday, announced new financing sources to increase housing supply and reduce costs, and announced that an additional $ 100 million program will be created to support affordable housing financing over the next three years.
Noting that they have been facing a very significant housing supply deficit for a long time, Yellen stated that this has led to the problem of affordability.
On the other hand, Nvidia’s share price, which carried the downward trend to the third consecutive trading day, fell nearly 7 percent yesterday. Thus, in the last three trading days, the company’s share price has lost 16 percent compared to its highest level.
Shares of Qualcomm, one of the other chip companies, fell 5.5 percent yesterday, while Arm Holdings’ shares fell nearly 6 percent.
Broadcom’s shares also lost about 4 percent after news published over the weekend that Chinese ByteDance is working with US chip designer Broadcom to develop an advanced artificial intelligence processor.
It was noteworthy that the shares of former US President Donald Trump’s media company Trump Media & Technology Group, which fell around 30 percent last week, increased by more than 21 percent.
While volatility was also noticeable in the cryptocurrency markets yesterday, Bitcoin closed the day at 59 thousand 514 dollars with a 6.6 percent decrease after falling to 58 thousand 402 dollars, closing the day at the lowest level of the last two months. Bitcoin is currently trading at $ 61,300, 3 percent above its previous close.
Analysts said that the depreciation in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was due to the theft of the Mt. Gox exchange announced in 2014 that it would distribute stolen assets to their owners.
The now defunct Mt. Gox exchange is expected to distribute crypto assets worth approximately $ 10 billion to their owners starting next week, while at least some of these assets are expected to be sold.
With all these developments, the US 10-year bond yield followed a horizontal course and was at 4.24 percent, while the dollar index decreased by 0.3 percent yesterday and ended the day at 105.5. Continuing its downward trend today, the dollar index is hovering at 105.4, 0.1 percent below its previous close.
The ounce price of gold, which closed the day at $ 2,334 with an increase of 0.6 percent yesterday, is currently trading at $ 2,328, down 0.3 percent compared to its previous close.
The barrel price of Brent oil, on the other hand, rose 1.1 percent yesterday to $ 85.3 a barrel with the effect of increasing geopolitical risks, reaching its highest level since May 1. The barrel price of Brent oil is currently at 85.2 dollars with a 0.1 percent decrease.
On the New York stock exchange yesterday, the Nasdaq index fell 1.09 percent and the S&P 500 index fell 0.31 percent, while the Dow Jones index increased 0.67 percent. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a mixed course.
European stock markets, on the other hand, followed a positive course yesterday.
The European Union (EU) yesterday adopted the 14th sanctions package against Russia, including a ban on the re-export of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
“The package includes restrictive measures against 116 individuals and entities responsible for actions threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine, as well as various sectoral measures,” the statement said, adding that the new package would close legal loopholes in existing sanctions, make it harder to get around sanctions and introduce new measures in the energy field.
“The EU Council has decided to ban the use of SPFS, the System for the Transfer of Financial Messages, a special financial messaging service developed by the Central Bank of Russia to eliminate the impact of the restrictive measures,” the statement said, adding that EU operators will also be banned from dealing with specially listed entities using SPFS outside Russia.
On the other hand, according to the results of the German Business Survey conducted yesterday by the Institute for Economic Research (Ifo) with the participation of about 9 thousand companies, the confidence of the German business world in the economy decreased in June.
The Ifo Business Climate Confidence Index, which was 89.3 in May in Germany, decreased to 88.6 points in June due to the deterioration in the future expectations of company executives. Market expectations were that the index would rise to 89.7 points.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 0.53 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 1.03 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany by 0.89 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy by 1.58 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.
In Asian equity markets, a positive course stands out, except for China.
According to the data released in Japan today, the leading index remained below forecasts with 110.9.
The dollar/yen parity, which approached the peak of the last 34 years by depreciating the Japanese yen against the dollar for 7 consecutive trading days, declined yesterday after the “intervention” rhetoric. The pair is currently trading at 159.3, 0.2 percent below its previous close.
Masato Kanda, Deputy Finance Minister for International Relations in Japan, stated that they are ready to intervene in the Japanese yen for 24-hour support if necessary.
Emphasizing that the developments in the exchange rate negatively affect the national economy, Kanda said, “We will make the necessary intervention in case of excessive volatility in the exchange rate for speculative reasons.”
Near the close, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.7 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea 0.4 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong 0.5 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China fell 0.2 percent.
In Turkey, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a horizontal course yesterday, completed the day at 10,767.85 points, down 0.03 percent compared to the previous close.
Dollar / TL is traded at 32.9360 at the opening of the interbank market today after completing the day at 32.9217, 0.3 percent above the previous close, following a buying course yesterday.
Analysts stated that the housing price index in Turkey and the New York Fed consumer confidence index and housing price index data in the USA will be followed today, and noted that technically, 10,800 and 10,900 levels are in the resistance position, 10,700 and 10,600 points are in the support position in the BIST 100 index.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, April house price index
16.00 US, April house price index
17.00 US, New York Fed consumer confidence index for June
