The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that the current Mpox outbreak in Africa will continue to see an increase in cases over the next four weeks.
The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) forecasts that the current mpox outbreak in Africa will continue to see an increase in cases over the next four weeks but is expected to stabilize by early 2025. The viral disease, primarily spread through close contact, has quickly spread to 20 African countries, causing widespread concern.
Mpox, which causes flu-like symptoms and fluid-filled lesions, is generally mild but can be fatal, especially for those with weakened immune systems. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency in August following the emergence of a new strain spreading from the Democratic Republic of Congo to neighboring countries.
Africa CDC spokesperson Ngashi Ngongo shared a cautious yet optimistic view in a recent briefing, stating, “After four weeks of intensified intervention efforts, we expect to see a plateau in cases. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, we anticipate a significant decrease in cases as these efforts prove effective.”
Despite these projections, significant challenges remain. Ngongo emphasized that surveillance and contact tracing are still critical barriers in managing the outbreak. Africa CDC is addressing these challenges by deploying additional resources, including community health workers, epidemiologists, and infection prevention specialists, to the affected areas, aiming to reduce transmission and contain the outbreak.
The WHO advisory committee also expressed concerns about the adequacy of current surveillance systems and cautioned that it is too early to lift the global health emergency declaration. The organization stressed the continuing spread of the virus and the urgent need for a coordinated response among countries and international partners to prevent further escalation.
As of this year, Africa CDC data shows over 59,000 mpox cases and 1,164 deaths across 20 African countries. The outbreak highlights the critical need for coordinated international action to control its spread and mitigate its impact.
